After a blockbuster trade by the Dallas Mavericks that sent guard Luka Dončić to the biggest market in the NBA (the Los Angeles Lakers). The Mavericks shockingly got the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft with a 1.8% chance.
The Mavericks, bound to select NCAA National Player of the Year Cooper Flagg, placed 10th in the Western Conference and lost in the Play-In Tournament after Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending injury.
The relationship between the controversial trade and receiving the No. 1 overall pick is more than coincidence, as seen by the draft order of the 14 teams selected to the lottery.
The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Charlotte Hornets each had a 14% chance of receiving the first pick of the draft after placing in the bottom three of the league. Yet, they didn’t get a top-two pick, with the second pick going to the San Antonio Spurs with a 6%, another controversial subject to discuss.
San Antonio, led by young superstar Victor Wembanyama, are guaranteed another amazing rookie to add to their star-studded cast. The franchise features NBA All-Star guards De’Aaron Fox and Chris Paul, suggesting favoritism within the league to start a new dynasty.
Not only are the odds most definitely not in favor of the top two picks, but the entire system can be easily manipulated if properly done.
Each NBA team selected to the draft receives a combination of ping-pong balls placed into a lottery machine, with four-numbered balls that represent a team.
According to NBA.com, in a room away from the ESPN broadcast, the drawing uses 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14. 1,001 possible combinations exist when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
Established in 1984, the lottery system initially favored the three teams with the worst record in the NBA, but modifications created in 2019 reduced the odds of a lower seed winning the #1 overall pick. Resulting in teams with superior records to get higher picks.
This can be seen from the 2024 NBA Draft from last year, where the Hawks won the lottery with a 3% chance, selecting Zaccharie Risacher.
In order to address the issue, the NBA should establish the regular draft system seen in professional leagues such as the NFL, where the draft order is based solely on the reverse record of the league’s standings. Preventing an imbalance of skill level and young talent throughout the league.
